Avatar: Fire and Ash has achieved a significant milestone, crossing the $1 billion mark at the global box office. This makes it the third film in the franchise to reach this figure, prompting discussions about whether its final earnings will rival those of its predecessors and if it will secure the future of Avatar 4 and 5.
During its third weekend, James Cameron’s Fire and Ash added $40 million domestically, representing a 37% decrease from the previous week, bringing its domestic total to $306 million. The film has seen stronger performance internationally, especially in China, accumulating $777.1 million from theaters. This brings its worldwide total to $1.083 billion. Disney has noted that this latest installment elevates the entire Avatar franchise’s global earnings beyond $6.35 billion.
Known for their extensive special effects, Avatar films typically involve substantial production costs but have consistently generated billions at the box office. The original Avatar holds the record as the highest-grossing film of all time (unadjusted for inflation), with an impressive $2.9 billion from multiple theatrical releases. Avatar: The Way of Water is the third-highest-grossing film, having earned $2.3 billion, surpassing another of Cameron’s works, Titanic.
A key question is whether Fire and Ash will ultimately match the box office success of its predecessors. While it reached $1 billion slightly slower than the first two films, the difference was minimal. The Way of Water achieved this milestone in 14 days in 2022, and the original Avatar took 17 days in 2009. Fire and Ash reached $1 billion in 18 days.
Avatar films are known for their sustained performance at the global box office, especially in international markets, making the upcoming weeks vital for Fire and Ash. To boost repeat viewings, Disney is strategically showing teaser trailers for Avengers: Doomsday before Fire and Ash screenings (the X-Men trailer is expected to be replaced by a new one soon).
A significant question revolves around whether Avatar 3 will generate sufficient theatrical revenue to persuade Disney to greenlight Avatar 4 and 5. Disney has already scheduled release dates for both sequels, with Avatar 4 set for December 21, 2029, and Avatar 5 for December 19, 2031. Director James Cameron, currently 71, would be nearing 80 by the completion of these projects.
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The opportunity for Cameron to complete these films remains uncertain. Prior to Fire and Ash’s release, Cameron acknowledged his apprehension regarding the film’s box office results and voiced worries about factors potentially hindering theatrical releases in 2025.
During an appearance on The Town with Matthew Belloni podcast, Cameron discussed the potential for “sequelitis.” He stated that sequels are often dismissed unless they represent the culmination of a story arc, like the third Lord of the Rings film, which he believes Fire and Ash is, though the public might not perceive it that way. He also cited the combined impact of streaming and the pandemic, which has led to a reduction in cinema attendance, estimating it at 75% of 2019 levels.
When asked about the production cost of Avatar: Fire and Ash, Cameron declined to provide a specific figure, only indicating that it was a substantial investment. He implied that the film must generate significant revenue to achieve profitability.
Cameron humorously remarked on the film’s cost, stating, “It is one metric f**k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f**k tons of money to make a profit.” He expressed confidence that the movie would be profitable, but questioned if it would earn enough to warrant further sequels.
Significant pressure rests on Avatar: Fire and Ash to perform well at the box office. (Photo by Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images for 20th Century Studios.)
Cameron also stated his readiness to conclude the Avatar saga if Fire and Ash does not succeed financially. He mentioned dedicating 20 years to Avatar, or 30 if counting its initial writing in ’95. He expressed acceptance if the franchise were to end, humorously suggesting he would write a book to resolve any remaining story threads.
While Disney has not yet provided an official statement regarding the future of Avatar 4 and 5, the company celebrated Fire and Ash’s $1 billion achievement as “another monumental achievement for James Cameron’s groundbreaking franchise and underscoring its unparalleled connection with audiences worldwide.”
Disney further commented that “Avatar: Fire and Ash has demonstrated the franchise’s signature theatrical staying power, building its global total through sustained performance driven by premium-format demand, and extended international play,” identifying these as defining characteristics of the Avatar phenomenon since 2009.
